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Version 150

1 September 2017

This is Version 150 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 1 September 2017.

Location Description Changes

Nil

Additions/Removals

Nil 

Risk Level Changes.

Colombia Elevated 2.3 from High 2.4: Reduced risk to aviation and to ground cargo as a result of FARC disarmament. 
Russia High 2.4 from Elevated 2.3: Slight increased risk of cargo disruption in next month resulting from Exercise ‘Zapad’ in western Russia, the Baltic and
 Belarus, and to marine cargo movement in Sea of Azov, following temporary Russian closures of the Strait of Kerch relating to bridge construction project.

Risk Score Changes

Iraq Very High 3.7 from Very High 3.8: Reduced risk to ground cargo as a result of Iraqi government capture of Mosul and securing of main highways.
Libya Severe 5.3 from Severe 5.4: Reduced risk to marine cargo and hulls in Benghazi as a result of LNA taking control of port and city. 
Malay Peninsula Moderate 1.0 from Moderate 1.2: Reduced risk to oil cargo, given that last successful oil cargo theft was in July 2015, and that since then most
 targeting of tankers since has been for petty robbery of ships stores/personal property,    
Mauritania Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.3: Political protest anticipated following referendum has not impacted on cargo risks.  
North Korea Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.0: Increased risk of disruption to marine cargo in the likely event of another North Korean missile test during US/South
 Korean joint exercise. 
South Korea Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 1.9: Increased risk of North Korean disruption to marine cargo near the disputed maritime boundary during US/South Korean
 joint exercise.
Syria Severe 5.0 from Severe 5.1: Implementation of de-escalation zones reduces risk to ground cargo using major highways in western and southern Syria. 
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters) High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increased risk of disruption to marine cargo using Ukrainian ports
 in Sea of Azov, following temporary Russian closures of the Strait of Kerch relating to bridge construction project.
Yemen Severe 5.5 from Severe 5.4: Increased insurgent use of unmanned marine IEDs against Saudi coalition warships and support ships increases risk to other cargo
 ships through misidentification.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.6 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 2.2Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.7Yes YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.7 Yes    Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 3.0 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.1 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.9Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(High) 3.0Yes    Yes 
India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarh)(High) 2.6  Yes Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.7 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.7Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.3Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.0YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.6    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states.)(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.1Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYes   
Russia(High) 2.4  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.0Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 4.0YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.7Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 5.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(Very high) 3.5    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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